Uncertainty-Aware Real-Time Decision-Making in Digital Twins

Digital Twins are more than virtual replicas of physical systems. They create a dynamic connection between physical assets and their digital counterparts, enabling bi-directional interaction, continuous learning, and real-time decision support. By integrating sensor data, IoT systems, physics-based models, artificial intelligence, and advanced analytics, Digital Twins provide a powerful framework for understanding, predicting, and optimizing complex engineering systems.

This research thrust focuses on developing AI-enabled Digital Twin methods for system design, performance optimization, control, and lifecycle management. A central goal is to transform Digital Twins from passive monitoring tools into intelligent learning systems that can adapt to new data, reason under uncertainty, and support robust decision-making in changing operating environments.

Our work combines machine learning, uncertainty quantification, real-time data assimilation, model predictive control, reinforcement learning, etc, to bridge the gap between physical and digital domains. These methods enable Digital Twins to predict future system behavior, evaluate alternative decisions, optimize process conditions, and provide actionable insights with quantified confidence.

Selected journal articles

An Attention-Based Spatio-Temporal Neural Operator for Evolving Physics

Karkaria, V., Lee, D., Chen, Y.-P., Yu, Y., & Chen, W.
IOP Machine Learning: Science and Technology 6 (2025): 045036

Uncertainty-Aware Digital Twins: Robust Model Predictive Control Using Time-Series Deep Quantile Learning

Chen, Y.-P., Tsai, Y.-K., Karkaria, V., & Chen, W.
ASME Journal of Mechanical Design, Special Issue: Data-Driven Design under Uncertainty, 148(2): 021702

Real-Time Decision-Making for Digital Twin in Additive Manufacturing with Model Predictive Control using Time-Series Deep Neural Networks

Chen, Y.-P., Karkaria, V., Tsai, Y.-K., Rolark, F., Quispe, D., Gao, R. X., Cao, J., & Chen, W.
Journal of Manufacturing Systems 80 (2025): 412–424
🏆 NAMRC 53 Outstanding Paper Award

An Optimization-Centric Review on Integrating Artificial Intelligence and Digital Twin Technologies in Manufacturing

Karkaria, V., Tsai, Y.-K., Chen, Y.-P., & Chen, W.
Engineering Optimization (2025) 1–47

Related talks

← Back to research